Unconditional Probability

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Paul Tracy

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Prior to starting InvestingAnswers, Paul founded and managed one of the most influential investment research firms in America, with more than 2 million monthly readers. While there, Paul authored and edited thousands of financial research briefs, was published on Nasdaq. com, Yahoo Finance, and dozens of other prominent media outlets, and appeared as a guest expert at prominent radio shows and i...

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Updated August 5, 2020

What is Unconditional Probability?

Unconditional probability refers to the chance that a particular event will occur without regard to external circumstances.

How Does Unconditional Probability Work?

The outcome of a single event can be affected by any number of accompanying conditions. Unconditional probability is the likelihood that an event will end with a specific result irrespective of other conditions that may be present.

Unconditional probability is calculated by dividing the instances of a definite outcome by the total number of events. For example, if a die lands on the number five 15 times out of 60 , the unconditional probability of landing on the number five is 25% (15 outcomes /60 total lots = 0.25).

Why Does Unconditional Probability Matter?

Unconditional probability calculates the likelihood you'll get a particular outcome even if you can't know what specific external conditions exist. Traders use unconditional probability to gauge the eventual profitability of a security.

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